If John McCain loses on Nov. 4 -- and that's a big if, considering the politically volatile environment -- the turning point could be traced to a half-empty campaign rally on Sept. 15 right here in Florida.

It was in Jacksonville, as the financial and credit markets were crashing, that the Republican presidential nominee uttered those fateful words: ``The fundamentals of our economy are strong.''

Just hours later in Orlando, he expounded on the economic ''crisis.'' But the damage was done.

A Strategic Vision poll released Friday showed Obama leading by eight points in Florida, a substantial swing from two weeks ago, when a survey had McCain three points ahead. A Rasmussen Reports poll indicated a tighter race, with Obama up by three points.

The state that made McCain could also mark his undoing.

His win in Florida's hotly contested Jan. 29 primary set him up to sweep the Super Tuesday states and claim the Republican nomination.

But the happy, scrappy warrior who barnstormed through Florida before the primary has been rushing through speeches and freezing out the press. The chipper campaign that rarely stooped to personal attacks is now bringing out the worst in people.

Take the appearances by his running mate, Sarah Palin, this week in Florida.

Before her speech in Estero, Lee County Sheriff Mike Scott incited the crowd by gratuitously referring to ''Barack Hussein Obama,'' a remark the McCain campaign later disowned. Also on stage fanning the flames was local radio talk show host Mandy Connell, who described Obama as ''a guy who hangs around with terrorists,'' referring to William Ayers, the leader of a radical group that bombed federal buildings to protest the Vietnam War.

At a Palin rally the same day in Clearwater, The Washington Post reported: 'Reporters were greeted with shouts and taunts by the crowd of about 3,000. Palin then went on to blame Katie Couric's questions for her `less-than-successful interview with kinda mainstream media.' At that, Palin supporters turned on reporters in the press area, waving thundersticks and shouting abuse. Others hurled obscenities at a camera crew. One Palin supporter shouted a racial epithet at an African-American sound man for a network and told him, 'Sit down, boy.' ''

While this mob mentality may fire up a room, it probably doesn't win a general election. Being outspent and outworked -- remember that half-empty McCain rally in Jacksonville? -- doesn't help.

The Obama campaign is also guilty of negative, misleading attacks, but it has mostly focused on issues. The Wisconsin Advertising Project found nearly 100 percent of McCain's television ads are negative -- and that was before Friday's new spot linking Obama to Ayers.

Does the fact that Obama attended a fundraiser 13 years ago at Ayers' home and served with him on charitable boards show bad judgment? That's something for voters to consider. But is that the most compelling argument against Obama at a time when voters are drowning in bills and watching their retirement go under?

The situation is so bad that people find themselves venting to total strangers. A cab driver who took me to the Palin rally said he had waited three hours and 20 minutes without a fare. Asked if he had healthcare insurance, 47-year-old Mulugata Worku asked, ``Excuse me?''

Silly question.

He hasn't decided who he is voting for -- yet.

Beth Reinhard is the political writer for The Miami Herald.

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