Mauricio Claver-Carone is a director of the U.S.-Cuba Democracy PAC (www.uscubapac.com), was an attorney with the Department of the Treasury, and has served on the full-time faculty of The Catholic University of America's law school.

For a clear understanding of the views of the Cuban-American community vis-à-vis U.S. policy toward Cuba, President-elect Barack Obama only has to look to the results of three congressional races in South Florida.

Few congressional races got more national and international attention than those of Reps. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Lincoln and Mario Diaz-Balart. Political pundits transformed these races into a referendum on generational change in the Cuban-American electorate and its views on U.S. policy toward Cuba.

Well, the results of the ''referendum'' are in, and it appears that the so-called ''hard-line'' and ''politically uniform'' support of sanctions against the Castro brothers' regime in Cuba again prevailed.

Outside observers must be shocked. What previously had been an ''unproven theory'' of the changing political views of the Cuban-American community was this year characterized by pundits as a foregone conclusion, and on election night disproved. Even when President-elect Obama visited Miami earlier in the year and indicated his support for most sanctions toward the Cuban dictatorship, Michael Putney -- a seasoned South Florida political commentator -- suggested that Obama ``may have pleased the dwindling number of elderly, very conservative Cuban exiles whose interest is primarily in punishing Castro; but [sanctions] make less and less sense to their children, grandchildren and Cubans who've arrived post-Mariel.''

Sound familiar? It should. Back in 1985, Tom Fiedler of The Miami Herald expounded the same theory: ''There has been a generational change among Cuban voters. The power is no longer being wielded exclusively -- perhaps not even primarily -- by those whose political orientation is Cuba.'' Fiedler, who became executive editor of The Miami Herald, has gone on to become dean of the College of Communication at Boston University.

Bottom line: This generational change of attitudes did not come to fruition in 1985, and it did not come to fruition in 2008. Discussed through the decades, it remains an ``unproven theory.''

The truth is, no majority -- or even a sizable portion -- of the Cuban-American community has ever voted for any candidate for federal office that supports unconditionally easing, let alone removing, sanctions against Cuba's despotic regime. Historically, Democrats such as Bob Graham and the late Dante Fascell and Republicans such as Connie Mack and Paula Hawkins have all shared one common view: None supported easing sanctions until the Cuban regime meets specific emancipating conditions. Today, the six Cuban-American members of Congress -- two Democrats and four Republicans -- can easily disagree on many issues, but they maintain clear agreement on one: U.S. policy toward Cuba.

Despite these clear facts, it remains oddly difficult for pundits to accept that every generation of Cuban Americans not only cares deeply about freedom and democracy in Cuba, but also remains strongly supportive of current U.S. law and policy. It is a policy that reasonably ties the easing of U.S. sanctions to:

• No. 1: the release of all political prisoners,

• No. 2: recognition and respect for fundamental human rights, and

• No. 3: legalization of independent political parties and labor unions.

President-elect Obama's historic election, and the diversity and magnanimity it represents, gives him a unique opportunity to challenge the Cuban regime to meet these conditions. It will make it very difficult for the Cuban authorities to vilify him, let alone ignore his demands. Certainly, the challenge should come before Obama considers or makes any modifications to current U.S. policy. Unilaterally easing sanctions would only send a mixed message, producing distractions and delays that would add to the burden borne by Cuba's beleaguered political prisoners and opposition activists. It would be a lost historic opportunity.

Undoubtedly, advocates of the so-called generational divide theory will continue pointing to polling data, particularly ''issue polls'' that are easily manipulated to tailor responses to benefit those financing the polls, or whose results can be to the detriment of the targeted issue.

Yet here is what the ''poll of polls'' -- the actual results of this November's elections -- has proven:

Cuban-American voters overwhelmingly supported the three incumbents, none of whom favor unconditionally altering any sanction against the Castro regime, and gave them significant victories despite an anti-incumbent environment.

''But 2010 will be different. It really will be. The generational divide will show itself.'' That's what political pundits will continue to say and write. And unless we see significant democratic reform take place in Cuba, they will be wrong again in 2010.

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