TALLAHASSEE -- Florida's budget gap could widen by up to $1.5 billion as state economists meet Friday morning to revise the state's revenue forecast for the first time since the economic crisis took on global dimensions this fall.

The previous budget forecasts, which predated the global recession, were predicated on a slight growth this year in Florida's population and an uptick in home sales, said Amy Baker, a state economist and director of the Legislature's Office of Economic and Demographic Research. At a briefing before House Democrats Wednesday, Baker warned: ``Those projections won't be happening.''

This year's budget already has a deficit of about $800 million, the result of far lower-than-expected tax collections. At Friday's revenue estimating conference, state economists and analysts will figure how much less Florida will collect.

The Legislature's analysts predict that their previous tax collection estimates are off by $1.5 billion. Gov. Charlie Crist's economists project a shortfall of about $1.2 billion.

At worst, the shortfalls would bring the current year budget deficit to $2.3 billion -- all but guaranteeing a special lawmaking session to cut the budget even more or plug the hole with dwindling savings money because Florida's Constitution forbids budget deficits.

Even adding back Crist's plan to cut agency spending by about 4 percent, the deficit will still stand at $2 billion to $1.3 billion. The reason for the wildly different numbers: Economists don't agree right now on just how much can realistically be cut from the budget with the agency budget holdbacks.

The previous shortfall projected in Florida's current $66 billion budget already left the state in the company of California, Arizona and Nevada as the states facing the deepest deficits.

Since August, sales tax collections are $670 million lower, auto sales have fallen 12 percent and tourism is off 6 percent. Florida's troubles are multiple: the credit crunch, the rising demand for Medicaid, criminal justice and community college services brought on by the recession, the record number of unsold homes on the market and plummeting earnings on investments.

What's more: the state plans to cash out some of those investments early and at the bottom of the market, thereby earning less on them than originally anticipated.

''We're suffering a perfect storm with our investment portfolio,'' said Jerry Bowman, senior economist in Crist's office.

There were 300,000 homes on the market in September, Baker said, up from the traditional inventory of 50,000. Florida ranks second in the nation in the number of home foreclosures but is also among the highest in residents who are delinquent on payments to credit cards and car loans, she said.

''The national recession is really starting to spread out and encompass every area,'' Baker said.

Florida saw a brief glimmer of hope on the housing front in mid-September, before credit markets froze, she said, as existing homes sales rose slightly. But with the decline in available credit, followed by the global recession, ''it was whammy on top of whammy,'' and those improvements won't return for several months. ``We're looking at a very slow, gradual return.''

Baker noted that Florida's unemployment rate, which in was 7 percent in October -- higher than the 6.5 percent national rate -- could grow to 8 percent by summer.

With more people out of work, the state's open-door policy at community colleges draws many back to school, swelling enrollment. There are more people committing property crimes, Baker said, adding to the demand on jails, courts and prisons. And more people qualify for Medicaid -- 100,000 new Medicaid patients are projected this year and another 150,000 next year.

''There's going to be more people in need over the next 18 months,'' Baker said.

Another group of Floridians will also be at risk, she warned: new homeowners.

As the housing boom drove home ownership in Florida to record levels -- from the historically constant levels of 66 percent to an unprecedented 72 percent -- it also snagged many families already in financially precarious situations. Many of them are now overburdened by debt and are struggling to make payments, Baker said.

''That's 410,000 families in Florida who are most vulnerable to the weakening economy,'' she said.

Plus, revenue is down and consumer confidence is at some of the worst levels since forecasters have been measuring.

''Anyone with an IRA or an investment account which has lost value and has lost home value is not going to be wanting to spend money,'' Baker said.

That all leads to one conclusion, she said: ``Florida is right now in the worst shape budgetarily than any other state.''

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